Lodestar PAC
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Lodestar PAC · Research

How we characterize the asteroids no one has measured.

A growing set of write-ups on the data engineering, astrodynamics, and machine learning behind Lodestar. Each one is honest by construction: every figure carries its provenance and its uncertainty.

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Paper 01 · Overview

Methods & Model Card

The full pipeline end to end: ranking by value and accessibility, a validated Lambert launch-window solver, the composition model, and the resource-value layer. The map of the whole system.

AstrodynamicsValue modelModel cardScrollytelling
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Paper 02 · Machine learning

Training, Testing & Improving the Taxonomy Model

How the composition classifier is trained on 116 measured asteroids, how it is tested without ever scoring an object it has seen, what calibration and abstention buy us, and exactly what it would take to make it materially better.

Random forestCalibrationAbstentionLearning curves
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Paper 03 · Mining economics

The Asteroid Mining Inversion

Why the gold is a trap and the water is the prize. The gravity-well tax, the price-collapse paradox, and why a kilogram of asteroid is worth ~3,000x more in orbit than sold on Earth.

Gravity-well taxPrice collapseIn-space valueScrollytelling